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Untitled Document


Plato's Hits, Near Hits & Misses
& Plato's Alsi-Near Letter

Friday, March 12, 2010

No. 512, Week 19- Year 12

The 13 Points - Updated - for short term trading

Before acting on these Prefs please read Plato's Disclaimer

Intro


When to sell:

1.
Nobel Econ. Prize winner Prof. Modigliani's advice: "SELL TOO EARLY."
2. Ronald Baron of Baron Capital Group, in his 2001 annual report: "Don't forget to sell."
3. "I should have sold the company then," Dr. Elkins (founder and now ex-chief executive of liquidated Integrated Health Services Inc., formerly one of the US's largest nursing-home chains) said on a hot day, while sipping a cold drink at the Ritz-Carlton near his Naples mansion (in 2002). "We were (then in 1998) the darlings of everybody."

In General:
1. Follow Stanley Druckenmiller's advice: "(W)atch your own net worth every day", rather than rely on fancy professional risk management models, esp. the VAR (value-at-risk) model. Do not abandon your money to others. Take a keen interest.
2. Barton Biggs (Dec 2004): "When the price of an investment goes against us, we buy more unless the fundamentals have changed."
3. Dr Gut (Jan 2005): Think small. Buy a small parcel. If it works, top up. If it tanks, average out. [This only applies to the shares of solid companies.] Realise small profits, unless the company has macroeconomic relevance. This way you tend to prevent that gambling instinct taking over which at some stage is going to risk it all.
4. Dr Gut (June 2006): Accumulate cash (profits) from judicious selling during the year so that during fire-sales, that may only come around once every seven (corrected from 'five', Oct 24, 2008) years, you can top up.
5. Dr Gut (August 2009): Selling makes money and preserves capital when the investment is in the black.

Caution 1: Diversify, diversify, diversify
On Tuesday, May 21, 2002: "Amerindo Fund's Investors Are Its Manager's Latest Charity Case"
By BRIDGET O'BRIAN and AARON LUCCHETTI Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
"Money manager Alberto Vilar made a fortune for himself and many of his clients in the 1990s with big bets on technology stocks. He has spent the past three years giving away a chunk of his personal money to charity. Some $50 million has been earmarked for Washington's Kennedy Center, about $40 million to New York's Metropolitan Opera, $20 million to New York University. In all, the 61-year-old president of Amerindo Investment Advisors has donated or pledged upward of $250 million since 1999, about half of it earmarked for opera, a longtime passion. But now, one needy group could use a little of Mr. Vilar's charity: his investment clients. With an average 37% annual loss in the three years through April 30, Amerindo Technology Fund has performed worse than all but two of some 4,900 mutual funds tracked by Morningstar Inc. Investment returns of Amerindo's Health & Biotechnology and Internet B2B funds, both started just as the technology bubble burst in 2000, have fallen since their inception and the portfolios have failed to gather significant assets. Meanwhile, Amerindo's main clients -- big institutional investors such as pension funds and university endowments -- also have taken a beating. In February 2000, the Oklahoma Firefighters' Pension & Retirement System invested $54 million with Amerindo. By September 2001, the investment had dwindled to $9 million and the pension fund, with a total $1.2 billion under management, pulled the plug on Amerindo. "We got in at absolutely the worst time," says Robert Jones, the pension fund's executive director. "The lack of diversification was just punishing," he says.

Platonists not only diversify their holdings, and practice "asset allocation", but also diversify their strategies.


Caution 2:
The actions you take -- and the results you produce -- are completely dependent on how you see the facts. You can focus on the best in every situation or you can focus on the worst. There's a problem in every opportunity and an opportunity in every problem. Interpret the facts negatively and you're left with little power and fewer opportunities. Change your point of view and you're empowered to create the best results possible -- no matter the circumstance.

Caution 3: When you have decided on a tactic - say to go long - think contrary. Wait for a low. When you want to short, wait for a high. So, when you see a target in a Pref, think contrariwise before getting in.

Caution 4: The Prefs' targets, as the Alsi-Near Letters' and FuturesPrefs' are provided as DIRECTIONS first and then thereafter as targets.

Prefs
This week's winners and losers
                 


Unmatured Prefs this week in order of appearance, and for easy reference
Every (20c-R2) Price (R2-R10) Category (R10-R50) Colour (R50+) Coded (Non-Directional Targeted/Dated)

Counters this week (in order of appearance, colour coded for easy reference)

1.AGI; 2.JCI; 3.MRF; 4.SIM; 5.AGL; 6.EXX; 7.LON; 8.SAP.

Last week's action:

This week's action:


20-R2
Counter...........
Date
Close
High
Low
Vol
D/D
D/T
Comment
1. AGI
[AGI]
03/23
520
523
520
178k
Jun '07
Oct'07
Mar'09
Aug '09

650

20
50

On 02/26: C:11; H:12; L:11. Vol. 66k Hold. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:11; H:11; L:11. Vol. 618k Hold. Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:10; H:10; L:9. Vol 884k Hold.

Hold:
01//10/07 2k x 520 = 10,400; Hold: 07/20/07 2k x 492 = 9,840; Hold: 08/22/07: 2k x 450 = 9000; Hold: 10/08/07: 2k x 370 = 7400; Hold: 07/18/08 4k x 100 = R0 (from close-out profit of SSF short, leaving R160 in kitty); Hold: 01/16/09 10k x 37 = R0 (from close-out profit of SSF short, plus R160 in kitty = leaving R60 in kitty); Hold: 05/15/09 10k x 36 = 3,600 + 36,640 = 40,240 / 32k = 126 ea
SSF:
05/14/08: Sold 2k AGIQ-M8 x 157 = 3140; Sold: 6k AGIQ-M8 x 152 = 9120 + 3140 = 8k, 12260 = 153.25 ea. Closed out: 8k AGIQ-U8 x 102 = 8160 - 12260 = SSF: 09/05/08 Closed 12k AGIQ-Z8 x 68 = R4,160 Profit; SSF: 9/05/08 Sold 12k AGIQ-Z8 x 68. Closed at offered 38 = R3,600 Profit
[Stat.Code:3]
B
2. JCI
[JCD]
.....08/30
......40
......40
.......39
.....477k
........??
........??
........45

On 06/01: n/t Hold. Adviss 06/04-07: On 06/04: Hold. Still no resolution? Lawyers must be salivating at how rich their retirement havens will be looking as the court cases drag on every day. On 06/05: Hold. Nog is het einde niet.
Adviss 07/2-5:
On 07/05: Hold. Platonist Charl Marais reports that there are efforts under way to have the co re-listed (among much confused talk on Moneyweb). Hold.
On 01/18: n/t. Hold. Apparently things are starting to move.
On 07/18: n/t. Hold. Adviss 07/21-24:
On 07/24: Hold. Some say we will get back 24-25 per share if a settlement recently proposed is accepted by all.
On 08/15: n/t. Hold. Adviss 08/18-20: Hold.
On 08/22: n/t. Hold. Adviss 08/25-28:
On 08/27: Nog is het einde niet! See below. The poor lawyers must be suffering. Adviss 05/12-14: Hold.
On 05/29: n/t. Hold. Advss 01-04: Hold.
On 06/05: n/t. Hold. When is this lawyer pension fund going to be settled?
Adviss 02/15-18: Hold.
On 03/12: n/t Hold.

Hold
8/30:25kx40=10000; Hold: 09/17:25kx33=8250; Hold: 04/11: 50kx24=12000; Hold:04/26:25k x 22 = 5500 +35750 =28.6c ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

nn
3. Merafe
[MRF]
01/08
142
145
136
7536k
?
170
215

On 02/26: C:145; H:145; L:137. Vol. 932k Hold. Finally! 150 next week. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:159; H:162; L:150. Vol. 10353k Hold. Look at increased vol! Notice new D/T. Although no D/D is provided the D/T could come surprisingly soon - poss by March 26. SO PLEASE PLACE THAT GTC SELL ORDER NOW! Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:156; H:159; L:155. Vol 1846k Hold. Looking good.

Hold: 01/11: 3500 x 142 = 4970
[Stat.Code:16]

R2-R10
Counter
Date.
Close
High.
.Low.
.Vol..
.D/D.
D/T.
Comment
4. SIMMERS
[SIM]
.....05/30
......430
......430
......387
...3949k
.??
Jul '09
?

500
.400
175

On 02/26: C:142; H:150; L:140. Vol. 8431k Hold. Looks like 150, not 155 waqs immediate target. But not to worry, 175 in the offing after a pullback. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:135; H:135; L:132. Vol. 823k Hold. Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:136; H:142; L:122. Vol 1363k Hold. May be changing for the better.

Hold:
06/02/08: 2k x 430 = 8600; Hold: 07/11/08: 2k x 355 = 7100; Hold: 07/07/09: 2k x 225 = 4500 + 15700 = 20,200 / 6k = 3.37 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]
R50+
Counter
Date.
Close
..High...
.Low.
.Vol..
.D/D.
D/T.
Comment
5. ANGLO
[AGL]
03/11
48960
50600
48960
3130k

Dec '08
Aug '09

Sept '09

65000
25000
28000

On 02/26: C:27650; H:28100; L:27570. Vol. 4910k Hold. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:29940; H:29970; L:29225. Vol. 3385k Hold. Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:30490; H:30490; L:29780. Vol 3705k Hold.

Hold:
03/12/08: 330 x 49500 = 163,350; Hold: 07/14/08: 100 x 45000; Hold: 10/24/08: 200 x 20000 = 40,000 + 244,610 = 284,610 = 451.76 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

B
6. EXXARO
[EXX]
First data as at +- 2:30 pm SAT 04/04/08
04/04
11400
11440
12500
105k

Dec '08


Sept '09
Aug '09
Apr '10

15000
16000
19800
11800
10000
13500

On 02/26: C:11500; H11550; L10905. Vol. 197k Hold. Looking superb. To pass Sept '09 on Monday. New D/T and D/D. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:11739; H:11739; L:11503. Vol. 706k Hold. Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:11525; H:11730; L:11490. Vol 550k Hold.. More upside.

Hold: 04/04/08: 100 x 11330 = 11330; Hold: 06/05/08: 300 x 14500 = 43500; Hold: 07/14/08: 100 x 12600 = 12,600; Hold: S07/18/08: 100 x 10200 = 10200; Hold: 08/27/08: 100 x 10530 = 10530; Hold: 12/08/08: 200 x 6650 = 13300 + 88160 = 101460 / 900 = 112.73 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

Bhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page35?oid=91164&sn=Detail
7. LONMIN
[LON]
04/25
47557
48280
46100
26k
Aug,'07
Feb'08
Jun'08

Jun'09
60000

70000
25000
On 02/26: C:21079; H:21875; L:20863. Vol. 49k Hold. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:22000; H:22047; L:21530. Vol. 98k Hold. Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:22350; H:22397; L:21835. Vol 450k Hold. Looking better. There could be significant upside.

Hold: 04/26/07: 50 x 46800 = 23,400; Hold: 06/06/07: 50 x 54100 = 27,050; Hold: 07/17/07:50 x 54000 = 27000; Hold: 08/17/07 100 x 41400 = 41400; Hold: 12/08/08 100 x 9000 = 9000; Hold: 03/16/09: 50 x 18100 = 9,050 + 127,850 = 136,900 / 400 = 342.25 ea
[Stat.Code:3]
h

8. SAPPI
[SAP]

06/17
11000
11201
10800
564k
??
July '09
??
4000

On 02/26: C:2951; H:3049; L:2875. Vol. 773k Hold. Adviss 03/1-04: Hold.
On 03/05: C:3100; H:3198; L:3087. Vol. 1935k Hold. Adviss 03/8-11: Hold.
On 03/12: C:3275; H:3275; L:3175. Vol 1016k Hold.

Hold: 06/17/08: 458 x 11000 = 33,000; Hold: 07/17/08: 319 x 7880 = 15,760; Hold: 11/14/08: 159 x 6100 = 6100; [Recalculated to account for split: hence vols are odd lot sizes and prices shown at which bought do not reflect now recalculated historical prices.]; Hold: 05/04/09: 500 x 2300 = 11500; Hold: 06/01: 400 x 2800 = 11200 + 66360 = 77560 / 1836 = 42.24 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

Legend of Statistical Codes: 1. Hit target on first day of trade; 2. Hit target on target day; 3. Hit target by target date; 4. Hit target after target date; 5. Near Hit of target on target day; 6. Near Hit of target by target date; 7. Near Hit of target after target date; 8. Hit revised target by target date; 9. Hit revised target by revised target date; 10. Hit revised target after revised target date; 11. Near hit of revised target. 12. Position closed with a profit; 13. Wrong Pref - position not opened - no loss & application of Points 8 & 10; 14. Wrong Pref - small to no loss & application of Point 6; 15. Wrong Pref - loss of 5-10%; 16. Not yet matured - ante/post target date; 17. Investor's decision - target date uncertain.

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