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Untitled Document


Plato's Hits, Near Hits & Misses
& Plato's Alsi-Near Letter

Friday, July 23, 2010

No. 527, Week 29 - Year 12

The 13 Points - Updated - for short term trading

Before acting on these Prefs please read Plato's Disclaimer

Intro


When to sell:

1.
Nobel Econ. Prize winner Prof. Modigliani's advice: "SELL TOO EARLY."
2. Ronald Baron of Baron Capital Group, in his 2001 annual report: "Don't forget to sell."
3. "I should have sold the company then," Dr. Elkins (founder and now ex-chief executive of liquidated Integrated Health Services Inc., formerly one of the US's largest nursing-home chains) said on a hot day, while sipping a cold drink at the Ritz-Carlton near his Naples mansion (in 2002). "We were (then in 1998) the darlings of everybody."

In General:
1. Follow Stanley Druckenmiller's advice: "(W)atch your own net worth every day", rather than rely on fancy professional risk management models, esp. the VAR (value-at-risk) model. Do not abandon your money to others. Take a keen interest.
2. Barton Biggs (Dec 2004): "When the price of an investment goes against us, we buy more unless the fundamentals have changed."
3. Dr Gut (Jan 2005): Think small. Buy a small parcel. If it works, top up. If it tanks, average out. [This only applies to the shares of solid companies.] Realise small profits, unless the company has macroeconomic relevance. This way you tend to prevent that gambling instinct taking over which at some stage is going to risk it all.
4. Dr Gut (June 2006): Accumulate cash (profits) from judicious selling during the year so that during fire-sales, that may only come around once every seven (corrected from 'five', Oct 24, 2008) years, you can top up.
5. Dr Gut (August 2009): Selling makes money and preserves capital when the investment is in the black.

Caution 1: Diversify, diversify, diversify
On Tuesday, May 21, 2002: "Amerindo Fund's Investors Are Its Manager's Latest Charity Case"
By BRIDGET O'BRIAN and AARON LUCCHETTI Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
"Money manager Alberto Vilar made a fortune for himself and many of his clients in the 1990s with big bets on technology stocks. He has spent the past three years giving away a chunk of his personal money to charity. Some $50 million has been earmarked for Washington's Kennedy Center, about $40 million to New York's Metropolitan Opera, $20 million to New York University. In all, the 61-year-old president of Amerindo Investment Advisors has donated or pledged upward of $250 million since 1999, about half of it earmarked for opera, a longtime passion. But now, one needy group could use a little of Mr. Vilar's charity: his investment clients. With an average 37% annual loss in the three years through April 30, Amerindo Technology Fund has performed worse than all but two of some 4,900 mutual funds tracked by Morningstar Inc. Investment returns of Amerindo's Health & Biotechnology and Internet B2B funds, both started just as the technology bubble burst in 2000, have fallen since their inception and the portfolios have failed to gather significant assets. Meanwhile, Amerindo's main clients -- big institutional investors such as pension funds and university endowments -- also have taken a beating. In February 2000, the Oklahoma Firefighters' Pension & Retirement System invested $54 million with Amerindo. By September 2001, the investment had dwindled to $9 million and the pension fund, with a total $1.2 billion under management, pulled the plug on Amerindo. "We got in at absolutely the worst time," says Robert Jones, the pension fund's executive director. "The lack of diversification was just punishing," he says.

Platonists not only diversify their holdings, and practice "asset allocation", but also diversify their strategies.


Caution 2:
The actions you take -- and the results you produce -- are completely dependent on how you see the facts. You can focus on the best in every situation or you can focus on the worst. There's a problem in every opportunity and an opportunity in every problem. Interpret the facts negatively and you're left with little power and fewer opportunities. Change your point of view and you're empowered to create the best results possible -- no matter the circumstance.

Caution 3: When you have decided on a tactic - say to go long - think contrary. Wait for a low. When you want to short, wait for a high. So, when you see a target in a Pref, think contrariwise before getting in.

Caution 4: The Prefs' targets, as the Alsi-Near Letters' and FuturesPrefs' are provided as DIRECTIONS first and then thereafter as targets.

Prefs
This week's winners and losers
                 


Unmatured Prefs this week in order of appearance, and for easy reference
Every (20c-R2) Price (R2-R10) Category (R10-R50) Colour (R50+) Coded (Non-Directional Targeted/Dated)

Counters this week (in order of appearance, colour coded for easy reference)

1.AGI; 2.JCI; 3.SIM; 4.PIK; 5.AGL; 6.LON; 7.SAP.

Last week's action:

This week's action:


20-R2
Counter...........
Date
Close
High
Low
Vol
D/D
D/T
Comment
1. AGI
[AGI]
03/23
520
523
520
178k
Jun '07
Oct'07
Mar'09
Aug '09

650

20
50

On 06/11: n/t. Hold. 5 bid 6 offerd. Adviss 06/14-17: Hold.
On 06/18: C:6; H:6; L:5. Vol. 565k. Hold. Adviss 07/19-22: Hold.
On 07/23: C:4; H:5; L:3. Vol. 5432k. Hold.

Hold:
01//10/07 2k x 520 = 10,400; Hold: 07/20/07 2k x 492 = 9,840; Hold: 08/22/07: 2k x 450 = 9000; Hold: 10/08/07: 2k x 370 = 7400; Hold: 07/18/08 4k x 100 = R0 (from close-out profit of SSF short, leaving R160 in kitty); Hold: 01/16/09 10k x 37 = R0 (from close-out profit of SSF short, plus R160 in kitty = leaving R60 in kitty); Hold: 05/15/09 10k x 36 = 3,600; Hold: 04/21 10k x 5 = 500; Hold: 04/21 10k x 5 = 500; Hold:
04/28: 10k x 5 = 500; Hold: 04/29/10: 200k x 6 = 12,000 = 53,740 / 262,000 = 20.5 c ea.
SSF:
05/14/08: Sold 2k AGIQ-M8 x 157 = 3140; Sold: 6k AGIQ-M8 x 152 = 9120 + 3140 = 8k, 12260 = 153.25 ea. Closed out: 8k AGIQ-U8 x 102 = 8160 - 12260 = SSF: 09/05/08 Closed 12k AGIQ-Z8 x 68 = R4,160 Profit; SSF: 9/05/08 Sold 12k AGIQ-Z8 x 68. Closed at offered 38 = R3,600 Profit
[Stat.Code:3]
B
2. JCI
[JCD]
.....08/30
......40
......40
.......39
.....477k
........??
........??
........45

On 06/01: n/t Hold. Adviss 06/04-07: On 06/04: Hold. Still no resolution? Lawyers must be salivating at how rich their retirement havens will be looking as the court cases drag on every day. On 06/05: Hold. Nog is het einde niet.
Adviss 07/2-5:
On 07/05: Hold. Platonist Charl Marais reports that there are efforts under way to have the co re-listed (among much confused talk on Moneyweb). Hold.
On 01/18: n/t. Hold. Apparently things are starting to move.
On 07/18: n/t. Hold. Adviss 07/21-24:
On 07/24: Hold. Some say we will get back 24-25 per share if a settlement recently proposed is accepted by all.
On 08/15: n/t. Hold. Adviss 08/18-20: Hold.
On 08/22: n/t. Hold. Adviss 08/25-28:
On 08/27: Nog is het einde niet! See below. The poor lawyers must be suffering. Adviss 05/12-14: Hold.
On 05/29: n/t. Hold. Advss 01-04: Hold.
On 06/05: n/t. Hold. When is this lawyer pension fund going to be settled?
On 06/11: n/t. Hold. Adviss 06/14-17: Hold.
On 06/18: n/t. Hold. Adviss 07/19-22: Hold.
On 07/23: n/t. Hold.

Hold
8/30:25kx40=10000; Hold: 09/17:25kx33=8250; Hold: 04/11: 50kx24=12000; Hold:04/26:25k x 22 = 5500 +35750 =28.6c ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

R2-R10
Counter
Date.
Close
High.
.Low.
.Vol..
.D/D.
D/T.
Comment
3. SIMMERS
[SIM]
.....05/30
......430
......430
......387
...3949k
.??
Jul '09
?

500
.400
175

On 06/11: C:106; H:106; L:103. Vol. 967k. Hold. Adviss 06/14-17: Hold.
On 06/18: C:103; H:105; L:100. Vol. 617k. Hold. Adviss 07/19-22: Hold.
On 07/23: C:97; H:113; L:92. Vol. 5175k. Just a whole lot of hot air?

Hold:
06/02/08: 2k x 430 = 8600; Hold: 07/11/08: 2k x 355 = 7100; Hold: 07/07/09: 2k x 225 = 4500 + 15700 = 20,200 / 6k = 3.37 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/simmers-shares-rise-as-govt-transfers-tau-lekoa-gold-mining-rights-2010-07-21
R10-R50
Counter
Date.
Close
..High...
.Low.
Vol.
.D/D..
D/T
Comment
4. PICKNPAY
[PIK]
07/16
4462
4491
4412
531k
10/10
6000
Point 8: Compare Monday's open with Friday's close. If higher, buy. If not, compare Tue's low with Mon's. If higher, buy. Adviss 07/19-22: On 07/19: Not yet. Open not higher than last close. On 07/20: Not yet. A few cents higher ain't much to be excited about. Tomorrow may be the day.
On 07/21: Yup it was today. Unfortunately my data feed is down so we must guess where we may have bought. Let's say 4500. Bought 200 x 4500 = 9000. Strategy: sell majority at 6000.
On 07/23: C:4597; H:4627; L:4536. Vol. 1549k. To ease off a smidgin, to allow a breather. Excellent vol! Hold.

Hold:
0721/10: 200 x 4500 = 9000
[Stat.Code:16]
From the pen of W Lucas of Imara July 22: We add to our last note by noting more financial effects on Pick n Pay of the sale of Franklins. Investment in Distribution Centres in conjunction with the SAP implement will bring them up to speed with their competitors. Some commentary has been critical of PnP that it’s a less polished business than Spar/Shoprite – but there’s the point – there’s lots PnP can do to juice earnings. The e-newsletter from Fastmoving had this to say about PnP: “While Pick n Pay has already established a presence in southern Africa, with stores in Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, it has its telescope trained on African terrain further afield. Mozambique, Angola, Zambia and Mauritius have all been earmarked for penetration, with 120 outlet openings planned for the next two years. And even further north, the in-the-making Gateway regional shopping complex in Malawi’s capital, Lilongwe, looks set to provide Pick n Pay with its own gateway to multi-directional outreach possibilities. Pick n Pay’s 3500m² store will anchor the centre, paving the entryway for other South African retail and bank brands. The official centre opening is scheduled for October 2011.” 120 stores? That’s not chicken feed. We also note in passing that the results for TM Supermarkets of Zimbabwe are still carried in the accounts at nil. Now while TM’s last results were shockers, that still seems too conservative. So despite recent share price gains – ADD. Market neutral at 4900c. en/page35?oid=91164&sn=Detail
R50+
Counter
Date.
Close
..High...
.Low.
.Vol..
.D/D.
D/T.
Comment
5. ANGLO
[AGL]
03/11
48960
50600
48960
3130k

Dec '08
Aug '09

Sept '09

65000
25000
28000

On 06/11: C:28769; H:29800; L:28656. Vol. 1502k. Hold. Adviss 06/14-17: Hold.
On 06/18: C:29683; H:30350; L:29480. Vol. 3566k. Hold. Adviss 07/19-22: Hold.
On 07/23: C:28837; H:28929; L:28250. Vol. 5632k. On the up, but how strongly is the ? Hold.

Hold:
03/12/08: 330 x 49500 = 163,350; Hold: 07/14/08: 100 x 45000; Hold: 10/24/08: 200 x 20000 = 40,000 + 244,610 = 284,610 = 451.76 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

Bhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page35?oid=91164&sn=Detail
6. LONMIN
[LON]
04/25
47557
48280
46100
26k
Aug,'07
Feb'08
Jun'08

Jun'09
60000

70000
25000
On 06/11: C:17685; H:18376; L:17614. Vol. 97k. Hold. Adviss 06/14-17: Hold.
On 06/18: C:18600; H:18800; L:18250. Vol. 1666k. Hold. Adviss 07/19-22: Hold.
On 07/23: C:17515; H:17515; L:16900. Vol. 242k. Hold.

Hold: 04/26/07: 50 x 46800 = 23,400; Hold: 06/06/07: 50 x 54100 = 27,050; Hold: 07/17/07:50 x 54000 = 27000; Hold: 08/17/07 100 x 41400 = 41400; Hold: 12/08/08 100 x 9000 = 9000; Hold: 03/16/09: 50 x 18100 = 9,050 + 127,850 = 136,900 / 400 = 342.25 ea
[Stat.Code:3]
h

7. SAPPI
[SAP]

06/17
11000
11201
10800
564k
??
July '09
??
4000

On 06/11: C:3040; H:3050; L:2876. Vol. 1810k. Hold. Adviss 06/14-17: Hold.
On 06/18: C:3040; H:3062; L:2930. Vol. 1508k. Hold. Adviss 07/19-22: Hold.
On 07/23: C:3443; H:3455; L:3380. Vol. 992k. Not looking too bad actually. Hold.

Hold: 06/17/08: 458 x 11000 = 33,000; Hold: 07/17/08: 319 x 7880 = 15,760; Hold: 11/14/08: 159 x 6100 = 6100; [Recalculated to account for split: hence vols are odd lot sizes and prices shown at which bought do not reflect now recalculated historical prices.]; Hold: 05/04/09: 500 x 2300 = 11500; Hold: 06/01: 400 x 2800 = 11200 + 66360 = 77560 / 1836 = 42.24 ea.
[Stat.Code:16]

Legend of Statistical Codes: 1. Hit target on first day of trade; 2. Hit target on target day; 3. Hit target by target date; 4. Hit target after target date; 5. Near Hit of target on target day; 6. Near Hit of target by target date; 7. Near Hit of target after target date; 8. Hit revised target by target date; 9. Hit revised target by revised target date; 10. Hit revised target after revised target date; 11. Near hit of revised target. 12. Position closed with a profit; 13. Wrong Pref - position not opened - no loss & application of Points 8 & 10; 14. Wrong Pref - small to no loss & application of Point 6; 15. Wrong Pref - loss of 5-10%; 16. Not yet matured - ante/post target date; 17. Investor's decision - target date uncertain.
N

The Plato Alsi-Near Letter
July 19 - 23, 2010

No. 2105-2110, Week 29, Year 7

A service dedicated to the JSE Alsi-Near
and Single Stock Futures of some of the biggest names on the JSE

Before acting on these suggestions please read Plato's Disclaimer

TARGET COLOUR LEGEND:
Since most recent close: Hit Target High.
Hit Target Low
. Closest it got and correct direction. Wrong Pref.
Note: Underlined and italicized data signify notable forecast accuracy.
............................
.Close.
..High..
..Low...
.Open.
D/T .by
07/23
..........................................Comment
As at 07/16..
24447
24772
24500
24600
24900
.
Daily view of the ALSI-NEAR
Mon, July 19
24253
24530
24180
24300
. .
Tue, July 20
24310
24459
23970
24385
. .
Wed, July 21
24781
24870
24475
24500
. .
Thur, July 22
25167
25248
24612
24659
. HIT D/T
Fri , July 23
25388
25440
25140
25206
. .
 
A selection of counters in the Alsi-Near as SSFs
Counter...........
Date
Close
..High.
..Low..
Open
..Vol...
.O-I..
D/T .by
07/23
..................................................................Comment...............................................................
ANGQ-U0
[AGL]
07/16
31281
31425
31281
31425
38
2717
30350
Im
 
07/19
30492
30656
30492
30656
522
2507
. .
.
07/20
30325
30398
29700
29949
325
2625
. HIT D/T
.
07/21
30430
30439
30430
30439
453
2890
. .
.
07/22
30473
30591
30473
30591
335
3001
. . .
.
07/23
29964
30139
29889
20889
476
3384
. .
. ...
Counter...........
Date
Close
..High.
..Low..
Open
..Vol...
.O-I..
D/T .by
07/23
Comment
AMSQ-U0
[AMS]
07/16
71412
72558
71412
72558
261
1081
70000
S
.
07/19
69755
70421
69755
70421
509
1440
. HIT D/T
.
07/20
69843
69843
69843
69843
332
1537
.  
.
07/21
71043
71570
71043
71570
321
1477
. V
.
07/22
73451
73560
72054
72054
291
1341
. H
.
07/23
73542
73542
73542
73542
336
1299
. . .
. ...
Counter...........
Date
Close
..High.
..Low..
Open
..Vol...
.O-I..
D/T .by
07/23
Comment
AGLQ-U0
[AGL]
07/16
27800
28192
27769
27769
3938
39204
27400
N
.
07/19
27792
27792
27200
27200
3962
38970
. HIT D/T
.
07/20
27800
28192
27769
27769
3938
39204
. e.
.
07/21
28085
28085
28085
28085
6756
36112
. .
.
07/22
28633
28633
27800
27800
4821
34501
. .
.
07/23
29122
30600
26600
29067
6251
31857
. . .
. ...
Counter...........
Date
Close
..High.
..Low..
Open
..Vol...
.O-I..
D/T .by
07/23
Comment

IMPQ-U0
[IMP]

07/16
18338
18523
18338
18523
1015
6414
18000
Im
.
07/19
18328
18824
18328
18565
631
6526
. .
.
07/20
18481
18481
18481
18481
688
5958
. .
.
07/21
18927
19344
18840
18841
1010
5785
. .
.
07/22
19782
19943
19543
19943
952
5422
. .
.
07/23
20183
20621
20183
20459
1079
5005
. . .
. ...
Counter...........
Date
Close
..High.
..Low..
Open
..Vol...
.O-I..
D/T .by
07/23
Comment

BVTQ-U0
[BVT]

07/16
12915
13203
12915
12941
184
4429
13000
Im
.
07/19
13006
13006
13006
13006
303
4388
. HIT D/T. I'd close open pos. Uncertain for rest of wk.
.
07/20
13053
13053
13053
13053
1208
4491
. .
.
07/21
13234
13234
13234
13234
38
4480
. .
.
07/22
13484
13484
13484
13484
716
3981
. .
.
07/23
13431
13484
13431
13484
516
4043
. . .
. ...
Counter...........
Date
Close
..High.
..Low..
Open
..Vol...
.O-I..
D/T .by
07/23
Comment

EXXQ-UO
[EXX]

07/16
11164
11200
10800
10800
171
5051
11400
Im
.
07/19
10956
11230
10900
11000
457
4721
. .
.
07/20
11120
11120
11120
11120
173
4573
. .
.
07/21
11482
11572
11300
11572
629
4455
. HIT D/T.
.
07/22
12060
12060
11100
11100
1026
3929
. .
.
07/23
12154
12154
12154
12154
417
4071
. . .
... .

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