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There are many handbooks on trading strategies and they often, correctly,
remind investors to "find a strategy and stick to, or with it".
Do not chop and change strategies. Keep to your plan!
But, to find the appropriate strategy is often more difficult than to
find the securities to invest in.
Recommendations to buy, sell,
or hold are also easy to find. But online investors are always on their
own when it comes to making the big decision: WHEN to buy, or sell.
PlatoPrefs, read with Plato's
proprietary 13 Points, and in this subscription the Daily Advisories try
to assist Platonists in deciding WHEN to sell and WHEN to buy.
This is how the 13 Points
approach the art of investing:
It approaches the art as a horse race with various (cycles of) distances
and which has already begun. And on which bets are placed as
it is run. Horses represent shares. The length of the race represent
both a trough and the apex of a cycle wherein many other shorter cycles
eventually appear, as well as itself being within a trough and apex. So
that there are many races within races, all representing cycles of performance.
The starting stalls represent the initial infusion and reallocation of
money and the number of bets placed on the race, and is a measure of how
much the horses (shares) are liked or are rerated at any one particular
moment in time (- a completely arbitrary moment, say when an investor
starts looking at a selection of shares e.g. on Sunday when he/she makes
some preliminary selections as to what is, prima facie, considered
good bets during a period selected, say over the next week).
The Platonist makes a note of this and watches which bets gradually turn
out right, i.e. which horses perform in relation to the other horses.
The bets represent the volume of shares bought and sold. During the race
the Platonist makes a decision: To stay out, or participate in the betting.
There are a number of factors the investor has to take into account. For
a start: The race is over a finite period. But because some horses are
steeple-chasers, and others one milers, to the former the race will go
on after the mile race is complete and a winner for that race is identified.
Its cycle is complete, and may commence another race (cycle) later. He/she
has to consider the possibility that the number of bets that a horse has
attracted was as a result of a betting syndicate being aware that the
race for that horse was longer than the race the others are running so
that if the investor is interested in short cycle (races) those horses
have to be ignored, even if many bets were placed on them. So although
a large parcel of money has reached horse A, that was not necessarily
because the syndicate wanted a return after the shortest race was run.
Before money is placed on a horse the investor has to decide how long
that race is. The cycle has to be identified. Then all the horses in that
race have to be grouped together. Then a comparison has to be made of
the varying chances each has in beating the others in that group. When
the first horse in a race is fast approaching the tape, the investor has
to make a decision: The race is about to finish and the horse is not going
to win. Switch allegiances. Cut losses. Platonists have 17 Statistical
Codes to identify the results of their strategy. They are presented below.
If the decision is made to switch, a Statistical Code 12 is allocated
to that decision. Some money is made. If one nevertheless believed that
circumstances will change and the selection come in second or third, and
in fact nearly wins a Stat.Code 6 is allocated. When we do not make any
money but we also do not lose any, e.g. we looked at the horse but rejected
it ultimately we have not lost any money other than time - we are a Stat.Code
13. If we lose we could be Stat.Codes 14-15.
Often the prospects of a horse depends on the going. Whether it is wet,
or hard. Whether the jockey is competent or on a winning streak. And these
days, whether it is doped! So a company, as represented by the weighting
a share has together with its status in the investing community, does
to a significant extent affect the number of bets placed on its performance.
These bets are the primary movers of the stock price because of the extremely
simple notion that if there are many buyers of a good it is, relationally
price-wise to its former state dear, and if there are few the opposite
obtains. Platonists therefore watch the watchers. Once it is clear that
a significant interest is being placed on a share such that the low does
not go lower, and in fact changes direction, they buy. And once a share
refuses to go higher, they sell. No fancy footwork.
No Nobel laureate risk-at-value or Black-Scholes models of risk. However,
all investors are at some time or other caught out. Provided the jockey
is reputable, and the horse is not doped, if the race in which a horse
is running is a steeplechase, tripping on one or two hurdles is not the
end of the world. Although the horse may take a breather, the race is
not run. Race tracks are not known for closing-down for lack of funds
while a race is run.
Statistical Codes: 1.
Hit target on first day of trade; 2. Hit target on target day;
3. Hit target by target date; 4. Hit target after target
date; 5. Near Hit of target on target day; 6. Near Hit of
target by target date; 7. Near Hit of target after target date;
8. Hit revised target by target date; 9. Hit revised target
by revised target date; 10. Hit revised target after revised target
date; 11. Near hit of revised target. 12. Position closed
with a profit; 13. Wrong Pref - position not opened - no loss &
application of Points 8 & 10; 14. Wrong Pref - small to no loss
& application of Point 6; 15. Wrong Pref - loss of 5-10%; 16.
Not yet matured - ante/post target date; 17. Investor's decision
- target date uncertain.
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The daily advisory
is NOT included with this product.
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